(Source: https://www.ers.usda.gov

In its September 2019 Rice Outlook report, the USDA forecasts 2019-20 global rice production (milled basis) at 494.2 million tons, down about 1% y/y. The forecast is down about 360,000 tons from its previous forecast.

The projected y/y decline is due to a 1.34 million hectare drop in global rice harvested area from last year's 162.1 million hectares. India and the United States account for the bulk of the expected decline in global rice harvested area in 2019-20.

The USDA projects the 2020 global rice trade at 46.2 million tons, up about 250,000 tons from the previous year, and down about 700,000 tons from a previous forecast. " On an annual basis, expanded exports in 2020 from Cambodia, China, India, Thailand, and the United States are projected to more than offset reduced shipments from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Burma, South Korea, Pakistan, and Paraguay," says the USDA.

The USDA forecasts MY 2019-20 global rice consumption at a record 493.3 million tons, up about 3.9 million tons in MY 2018-19. The forecast is down about 1.2 million tons from its previous forecast.

The USDA projects the 2019-20 global rice ending stocks to increase about 900,000 tons from the previous year to a record 172.7 million tons. The current forecast is down about 1.9 million tons from the previous forecast.  This is the thirteenth consecutive year of increasing global ending stocks.

The agency projects the global stocks-to-use ratio in 2019-20 at 35%, down from 35.7% a year earlier but still below the 2000-01 record of 37.3%.